Poll Shows Arizona Voters Back Legal Marijuana Measure As Officials Verify Signatures

As Arizona officials move forward with verifying recently submitted signatures for a proposed marijuana legalization ballot initiative, a new poll shows that the state’s voters overwhelmingly support the reform.

In a survey of likely voters released on Tuesday, more than six-in-ten (62 percent) said they support legalizing cannabis, while 32 percent were opposed.

The campaign behind the proposed initiative, Smart and Safe Arizona, turned in roughly 420,000 signatures in support of the measure earlier this month.

On Monday evening, Secretary of State Katie Hobbs provided an update on efforts to verify those petitions.

“After review, 415,587 petition signatures were determined to be eligible for random sampling and County Recorder verification,” Hobbs tweeted. “20,780 petition signatures have been sent to counties for verification. If at least 11,882 signatures are validated, the initiative will qualify for the ballot.”

County officials now have until August 7 to validate the submissions sent to them by the state.

20,780 petition signatures have been sent to counties for verification. If at least 11,882 signatures are validated, the initiative will qualify for the ballot. 2/2

— Secretary Katie Hobbs (@SecretaryHobbs) July 21, 2020

The new survey, conducted by OH Predictive Insights on July 6 and 7, asked 600 respondents if they “believe that marijuana should be legalized for adult use in the State of Arizona.”

Democrats back legalization by a 58-point margin (75 percent to 17 percent) and Independents by a 46-point margin (70 percent to 24 percent), but Republicans oppose the reform, 52 percent to 44 percent.

The poll found that support across the state and among many demographic groups has grown considerably since the last time the firm asked about the topic of legalizing cannabis in December.

Via OH Predictive Insights.

It also revealed that urban, suburban and rural voters all support ending marijuana prohibition at roughly the same rate.

Via OH Predictive Insights.

A 2016 legalization proposal was rejected by Arizona voters. But in the four years since, more states have opted to legalize and public opinion has continued to shift in favor of reform.

“Four years ago, marijuana legalization nearly came to fruition,” Mike Noble, chief of research at OH Predictive Insights, said in a press release. “And less than four months before Election Day, Arizona is on the cusp of allowing the adults to use recreational pot.”

“Unlike 2016, no credible group has raised significant money to oppose the marijuana legalization and that could be the biggest difference in 2020,” Noble said, referring to the well-funded opposition campaign backed by interests including the pharmaceutical industry that helped to defeat the proposed reform four years ago.

#AZPOP#POLL: #Arizona voters ready to give #Legalized#Marijuana the green light

"Do you believe that marijuana should be legalized for adult use in the State of Arizona?"

Yes: 62% No: 32%

n=600, MoE +/-4.0%

Read more here –> https://t.co/LqvZzSulNFpic.twitter.com/ufAyWx2JXI

— OHPI (@OHPredictive) July 21, 2020

A separate poll released by a different firm last month described the specifics of the Smart and Safe Arizona measure and found that about two-thirds (65.5 percent) of likely voters said they would support it.

Under the measure, adults could possess up to an ounce of marijuana at a time and cultivate up to six plants for personal use.

The initiative also contains several restorative justice provisions such as allowing individuals with prior marijuana convictions to petition the courts for expungements and establishing a social equity ownership program

Cannabis sales would be taxed at 16 percent. Tax revenue would cover implementation costs and then would be divided among funds for community colleges, infrastructure, a justice reinvestment and public services such as police and firefighters.

The Department of Health Services would be responsible for regulating the program and issuing cannabis business licenses. It would also be tasked with deciding on whether to expand the program to allow for delivery services.

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Two-Thirds Of Arizona Voters Support Marijuana Legalization Ballot Measure, Poll Shows

If Arizona marijuana activists succeed in placing a legalization initiative before voters this November, it will likely pass by a wide margin, according to a new poll.

In a survey of likely voters, about two-thirds (65.5 percent) of respondents said they would support the proposed measure, the Smart and Safe Arizona Act. That’s a notable shift since residents were surveyed late last year in a poll that showed 54 percent in favor of the policy change.

The survey described the legalization initiative, which would make it legal for adults 21 and older to purchase and possess cannabis and also impose taxes on legal sales, and asked 400 respondents if they would vote yes or no on the proposal

NEW POLL shows 65% of #Arizona voters are likely to vote Yes to legalize the sale, possession, and consumption of one ounce of #marijuana for adults at least 21 years old. READ MORE 👉🏼https://t.co/hTO0L60CRTpic.twitter.com/TygihYdxso

— HighGround, Inc. (@azhighground) June 1, 2020

Forty-seven percent said they would “definitely” back it and 18.5 percent said they “probably” would. Nineteen percent said they “definitely” would not vote for it, while six percent said they “probably” wouldn’t.

The campaign behind the initiative, Smart and Safe Arizona, said in April that it had collected enough raw signatures to qualify for the ballot. However, those haven’t been verified by the state yet and the group said it plans to continue petitioning to ensure success. Stacy Pearson, campaign manager for the organization, told Marijuana Moment on Tuesday that they’re “on track to turn in more than 400,000 signatures by the July 2 deadline.”

“The HighGround poll is encouraging and tracks with what our internal polling shows—Arizonans are ready to legalize marijuana,” she said. “Particularly in this economic environment, new jobs and tax revenue are important to voters.”

Activists asked the state Supreme Court to allow electronic signature gathering given challenges presented by the coronavirus pandemic, but that request was rejected.

In the poll, which was conducted from May 18-22, the only group that appears divided on the issue are those who identify as “very conservative.” They were evenly split—47.6-47.6 percent—on whether or not they’d vote in favor of legalization. All other demographics were solidly in favor of the proposal.

Via Higherground.

“As long as Smart and Safe Arizona can qualify for the ballot, all signs point to 2020 being the year that recreational marijuana finally becomes legal in Arizona,” Paul Bentz, senior vice president of research and strategy at HighGround, said in a press release. “Of course, there is still strong opposition among some of those who represent the most conservative segments of the electorate. We should expect a legal challenge coming from that audience because at this point, that’s the likely the only way they can defeat this issue.”

Under the measure, adults could possess up to an ounce of marijuana at a time and cultivate up to six plants for personal use.

The initiative also contains several restorative justice provisions such as allowing individuals with prior marijuana convictions to petition the courts for expungements and establishing a social equity ownership program

Cannabis sales would be taxed at 16 percent. Tax revenue would cover implementation costs and then would be divided among funds for community colleges, infrastructure, a justice reinvestment and public services such as police and firefighters.

The Department of Health Services would be responsible for regulating the program and issuing cannabis business licenses. It would also be tasked with deciding on whether to expand the program to allow for delivery services.

A 2016 legalization proposal was rejected by Arizona voters. But in the four years since, more states have opted to legalize and public opinion has continued to shift in favor of reform.

“Clearly, the initiative backers have learned from the mistakes of the past and have done everything they can to put together a more palatable proposal,” Bentz said. “In particular, they were wise to make this proposition more ‘family friendly’ by banning smoking in public and ensuring products cannot resemble children’s candy. Ultimately, that’s likely what got them over the hump with a majority of Republicans.”

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Photo courtesy of Brian Shamblen.